ABSTRACT
This work is devoted to studying the transmission dynamics of CoV-2 under the effect of vaccination. The aforesaid model is considered under fractional derivative with variable order of nonsingular kernel type known as Atangan-Baleanue-Caputo (ABC). Fundamental properties of the proposed model including equilibrium points and R0 are obtained by using nonlinear analysis. The existence and uniqueness of solution to the considered model are investigated via fixed point theorems due to Banach and Krasnoselskii. Also, the Ulam-Hyers (UH) approach of stability is used for the said model. Further numerical analysis is investigated by using fundamental theorems of AB fractional calculus and the iterative numerical techniques due to Adams-Bashforth. Numerical simulations are performed by using different values of fractional-variable order ?(??) for the model. The respective results are demonstrated by using real data from Saudi Arabia for graphical presentation.
ABSTRACT
This study aims to structure and evaluate a new COVID-19 model which predicts vaccination effect in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) under Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) fractional derivatives. On the statistical aspect, we analyze the collected statistical data of fully vaccinated people from June 01, 2021, to February 15, 2022. Then we apply the Eviews program to find the best model for predicting the vaccination against this pandemic, based on daily series data from February 16, 2022, to April 15, 2022. The results of data analysis show that the appropriate model is autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA (1, 1, 2), and hence, a forecast about the evolution of the COVID-19 vaccination in 60 days is presented. The theoretical aspect provides equilibrium points, reproduction number R0, and biologically feasible region of the proposed model. Also, we obtain the existence and uniqueness results by using the Picard-Lindel method and the iterative scheme with the Laplace transform. On the numerical aspect, we apply the generalized scheme of the Adams-Bashforth technique in order to simulate the fractional model. Moreover, numerical simulations are performed dependent on real data of COVID-19 in KSA to show the plots of the effects of the fractional-order operator with the anticipation that the suggested model approximation will be better than that of the established traditional model. Finally, the concerned numerical simulations are compared with the exact real available date given in the statistical aspect. © 2023 Authors. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
This study aims to structure and evaluate a new COVID-19 model which predicts vaccination effect in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) under Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) fractional derivatives. On the statistical aspect, we analyze the collected statistical data of fully vaccinated people from June 01, 2021, to February 15, 2022. Then we apply the Eviews program to find the best model for predicting the vaccination against this pandemic, based on daily series data from February 16, 2022, to April 15, 2022. The results of data analysis show that the appropriate model is autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA (1, 1, 2), and hence, a forecast about the evolution of the COVID-19 vaccination in 60 days is presented. The theoretical aspect provides equilibrium points, reproduction number R0, and biologically feasible region of the proposed model. Also, we obtain the existence and uniqueness results by using the Picard-Lindel method and the iterative scheme with the Laplace transform. On the numerical aspect, we apply the generalized scheme of the Adams-Bashforth technique in order to simulate the fractional model. Moreover, numerical simulations are performed dependent on real data of COVID-19 in KSA to show the plots of the effects of the fractional-order operator with the anticipation that the suggested model approximation will be better than that of the established traditional model. Finally, the concerned numerical simulations are compared with the exact real available date given in the statistical aspect. © 2023 Authors. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
The present investigations are associated with designing Morlet wavelet neural network (MWNN) for solving a class of susceptible, infected, treatment and recovered (SITR) fractal systems of COVID-19 propagation and control. The structure of an error function is accessible using the SITR differential form and its initial conditions. The optimization is performed using the MWNN together with the global as well as local search heuristics of genetic algorithm (GA) and active-set algorithm (ASA), i.e., MWNN-GA-ASA. The detail of each class of the SITR nonlinear COVID-19 system is also discussed. The obtained outcomes of the SITR system are compared with the Runge-Kutta results to check the perfection of the designed method. The statistical analysis is performed using different measures for 30 independent runs as well as 15 variables to authenticate the consistency of the proposed method. The plots of the absolute error, convergence analysis, histogram, performance measures, and boxplots are also provided to find the exactness, dependability and stability of the MWNN-GA-ASA.